Government Analysis Function on YouTube · Open on YouTube
Analysis memos, decision docs and executive communication · Proficient · Lesson 79 of 99 · 1 h 1 min video, then about 60 min of practice
Communicating uncertainty honestly to decision makers
After this you can express uncertainty in words and numbers decision makers understand, without hiding behind it or overstating confidence.
Why it matters
Decision makers need to know how sure you are, but 'p = 0.03' and '95% CI' mean little to most of them. Express ranges in business units ('between 2 and 6 percent, most likely around 4'), say what drives the uncertainty, and say what you would need to be more certain. David Spiegelhalter is the leading authority on trustworthy communication of statistics. The traps are false precision and burying the uncertainty in a footnote.
How to use this resource
Sir David Spiegelhalter on communicating uncertainty, recorded for the UK Government Analysis Function in 2026.